Flywheel Monitor — STRC / MSTR / BTC

📊 strategy.com 官方资产负债表

源自官网

BTC 持仓

843,775 BTC

BTC NAV ≈ $53.09B @ $63K · spot

完全摊薄股本 (Sats/Share 基数)

414.26M 股

Sats/Share 203,682 · 每股 0.00203683 BTC

资本结构

$6.75B / $15.43B / $3.75B

可转债 / 优先股 / 现金 · 债务年限 3.7Y · 软件运营现金 $0.0M

YTD

+4.50%

QTD

+74.30%

2024

+22.80%

2023

+7.30%

BTC YIELD
每股含 BTC 增长

优先股矩阵 · 飞轮融资弹药

STRK · Strike

8% 股息 @ $59.56

14,020,744 股

发行量 $1.40B · 市值 $0.84B

派息 2026-09-30

STRC · Stretch (Perp)

12% 股息 @ $89.46

104,605,775 股

发行量 $10.46B · 市值 $9.36B

派息 2026-08-15

STRD · Stride

10% 股息 @ $57.89

14,024,221 股

发行量 $1.40B · 市值 $0.81B

派息 2026-09-30

STRE · Stream €

10% 股息

8,821,825 股

发行量 $1.00B · 市值 n/a · FX €→$ 1.1383

派息 2026-09-30

STRF · Strife

10% 股息 @ $94.76

12,839,689 股

发行量 $1.28B · 市值 $1.22B

派息 2026-09-30

抓取 2026-08-01T08:52:04.193582+08:00 · strategy.com ↗

🧯 STRC Dividend Runway

保守口径 HEALTHY >= 2Y

STRC-only runway

35.8 mo / 2.99Y

Reserve / STRC shares × $100 × dividend rate

USD Reserve

$3.75B

目标: $2.5-3.0B 才接近 2 年安全垫

STRC annual cash need

$1.26B/yr

$104.6M/mo · rate 12.00%

保守口径 30.5 mo / 2.54Y · denominator $12.30B · 低于 1.5Y 停止称为“两年安全垫” · strategy.com official + latest 8-K reserve fallback

🧯 Global Dividend + Interest Runway

HEALTHY >= 12M

Global runway

24.9 mo / 2.08Y

Reserve / (all preferred dividends + debt interest)

Annual cash need

$1.80B/yr

Preferred $1.74B + Debt interest $67.5M @ 1.0%

Fish red lines

9M $1.35B

Headroom $2397.0M · 6M $0.90B

Series	Notional	Rate	Annual cash
STRK	$1.40B	8.00%	$112.2M
STRC	$10.46B	12.00%	$1255.3M
STRD	$1.40B	10.00%	$140.2M
STRE	$1.00B	10.00%	$100.4M
STRF	$1.28B	10.00%	$128.4M

场景: 0% debt 25.9 mo · 1% debt 24.9 mo · 2% debt 24.0 mo · raw cumulative field implies 7.1 mo but not used as payout denominator · Payout denominator uses outstanding shares × stated amount. strategy.com cumulative_notional is tracked as raw conflict signal, not cash need.

📐 mNAV 三种口径对比

实时计算

官方口径 · strategy.com

1.023x

EV / BTC Reserve

(MCap + Debt + Pref − Cash) / BTC_NAV

Fish 口径 · 含现金资产

1.021x

溢价发行 🟢 ATM 增吸 BTC

(MCap + Debt + Pref) / (BTC_NAV + Cash)

Basic · 共股东裸视角

0.676x

不含负债 / 优先股

MCap / BTC_NAV

Market Cap $35.88B (384,597,000 摊薄股 × $93.28)

BTC NAV $53.09B (843,775 BTC)

可转债 $6.75B · 优先股面值 $15.43B · 现金 $3.75B

📄 季报 Q2 2026 · 7/30 盘后

SEC 8-K

净亏损

−$8.22B

−$24.45/股 diluted · BTC 未实现亏损

总营收

$122.4M

+6.9% · 订阅服务 $62.9M (+54% YoY)

BTC 账面(6/30)

843,775

市值 $54.77B vs 成本 $63.69B · 水下 −$8.9B

BTC Yield YTD

4.5%

卖币 YTD $218.4M · Reserve $3.75B/2.1yr

🟢 STRC 回购首执

$28.9M 面值

付 $25.0M · 13% 折价 (accretive)

Saylor: "we will definitely bring STRC back to par" · Q2 新闻稿

🎯 飞轮反转三联触发器

2/3 · 🔴 双灯 · 反转临界

🔴 mNAV 1.023x (官方EV−Cash)

🔴 STRC $89.46

🟢 USD Reserve $3750M

任两灯同现 = 溢价印钞→折价卖币临界 · 阈值 mNAV<1.10 / STRC<$90 / Reserve<$600M · heavyskill 2026-06-04

💡 状态解读

评分依据

STRC 严重脱锚 $89.46 🔴
BTC $62,918 偏弱 🟠

🚨 STRC 告警阈值

T1 $95 观察 T2 $92 加仓 T3 $85 激进 T4 $75 危机 rebound $100

🎡 Flywheel Monitor · MSTR

📊 strategy.com 官方资产负债表

🧯 STRC Dividend Runway

🧯 Global Dividend + Interest Runway

📐 mNAV 三种口径对比

最新 8-K · 2026-07-27 · Period July 20, 2026 → July 26, 2026

📄 季报 Q2 2026 · 7/30 盘后

🎯 飞轮反转三联触发器

💡 状态解读

🚨 STRC 告警阈值